The Oscars' Unspoken Rules: Why 'Sinners' Deserves to Win, But Probably Won't
The Oscars are upon us, and as always, the Best Picture race is a battleground of art, politics, and unspoken industry biases. This year, the showdown between Sinners and One Battle After Another is more than just a contest of films—it’s a reflection of Hollywood’s priorities, its fears, and its stubborn resistance to change.
The Academy’s Comfort Zone: Why One Battle Will Likely Triumph
Let’s start with One Battle After Another. On paper, it’s the Academy’s dream candidate: a traditional narrative, a star-studded cast, and a gentle satire of right-wing extremism that lets voters pat themselves on the back for being “woke” without challenging their worldview too much. Personally, I think this is where the Oscars often fall short—they reward films that feel important but rarely demand anything radical from their audience.
What makes this particularly fascinating is how One Battle plays into the Academy’s love for self-congratulatory storytelling. It’s the kind of film that allows voters to feel like they’re making a political statement while still staying within their comfort zone. In my opinion, this is why it’s the frontrunner. It’s not just about the film’s merits; it’s about what the Academy wants to say about itself.
Sinners: A Masterpiece That Dares to Be Uncomfortable
Now, let’s talk about Sinners. This is a film that doesn’t just push boundaries—it obliterates them. Ryan Coogler’s vision is bold, unapologetic, and deeply political in a way that One Battle isn’t. The fact that it ends with a Black character taking down KKK members is a moment of catharsis, but it’s also a red flag for the Academy’s more conservative voters.
What many people don’t realize is that Sinners is more than just a genre film. It’s a cultural statement, a call to arms, and a masterpiece of cinematography. Autumn Durald Arkapaw’s work behind the camera is nothing short of breathtaking, and Michael B. Jordan’s dual performance as twin brothers is a career-defining moment. If you take a step back and think about it, this film is exactly what the Oscars should celebrate: bold, diverse, and unafraid to confront its audience.
But here’s the rub: the Academy has a history of shying away from films that are too “genre” or too confrontational. Sinners is both. It’s a horror film with a political edge, and that’s a combination that makes traditional voters uneasy. In my opinion, this is why it’s the underdog, even though it’s the better film.
The Bigger Picture: What the Oscars Say About Hollywood
This raises a deeper question: what do the Oscars really reward? Is it artistic excellence, or is it a reflection of the industry’s biases and fears? From my perspective, the Oscars often prioritize films that feel “safe”—films that don’t challenge the status quo too much.
A detail that I find especially interesting is how Sinners and One Battle mirror broader trends in Hollywood. Sinners represents the future: diverse, bold, and unafraid to take risks. One Battle represents the past: traditional, star-driven, and politically palatable. The fact that One Battle is likely to win says a lot about where the Academy’s head is at.
The Acting Race: Timmy vs. Michael B. Jordan
Now, let’s shift gears to the Best Actor category. Timothée Chalamet’s performance in Marty Supreme is undoubtedly showy, and his campaign has been relentless. But personally, I think Michael B. Jordan’s work in Sinners is in a league of its own. Playing twin brothers with distinct personalities—one of whom becomes a vampire—is a feat that few actors could pull off.
What this really suggests is that the Academy often rewards the “biggest” performance rather than the best one. Chalamet’s campaign has been polarizing, and while I don’t think that will cost him the win, it’s worth noting that Jordan’s performance has been universally praised for its depth and nuance. If there’s any justice, Jordan should win. But in the Oscars, justice isn’t always the deciding factor.
Best Actress: Jessie Buckley’s Inevitable Win
Finally, let’s talk about the Best Actress race. Jessie Buckley’s performance in Hamnet is a tour de force, and it’s hard to see anyone else taking the prize. But what’s interesting here is how the Academy views “Oscars-y” performances. Buckley’s work is emotional, raw, and technically impeccable—all the things the Academy loves.
However, I’d argue that Rose Byrne’s performance in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You is just as deserving. She carries the entire film on her shoulders, and her ability to convey complex emotions through subtle reactions is nothing short of remarkable. But in the end, Buckley’s performance ticks all the right boxes for the Academy, and that’s why she’ll likely win.
Final Thoughts: The Oscars as a Reflection of Hollywood
As I reflect on this year’s Oscars, I can’t help but feel a sense of frustration. The Academy has a chance to reward bold, diverse, and groundbreaking work with Sinners, but all signs point to them playing it safe with One Battle.
What this really suggests is that Hollywood still has a long way to go in terms of embracing risk and diversity. The Oscars are more than just an awards show—they’re a reflection of the industry’s values. And if One Battle wins, it’ll be a missed opportunity to celebrate a film that truly deserves it.
In my opinion, Sinners should win Best Picture. But in the world of the Oscars, should and will are two very different things.
